Cryptosoft Course Analysis – Life after the Token Sale

At the end of the DAO Token sale the Ethereum course went down quite a bit. Since May 28th the price has risen slightly and is currently at 11.20EUR (12.47 USD).

Cryptosoft Summary:

At the beginning of the week Cryptosoft fell to 9.43 EUR (10.50 USD). On 28 May Cryptosoft recovered slightly to 11.20EUR (12.47 USD). Currently, the Ethereum price is going through a flat triangle pattern where a breakout is imminent or may already have begun.

Bulls take a breather

Well, the support was undercut and Ethereum obeyed on the word: He falls first properly into the cellar. On May 26th and May 27th the cops try timidly to break this downtrend – which was only achieved at the end of the DAO Token Sale. Since then the price has risen gently. So the bulls took a breather until 28 May. And as gently as the price rose compared to the previous week, apparently rightly so.

Perhaps an overinterpretation, but the pattern since 28 May has the character of a very flat triangle pattern. If this were so, it would currently look as if the triangle pattern is being broken upwards – which would suggest a stronger rise. But be careful – as the pattern is very flat the breakout to the bottom is still possible. I would set an alert on the current EMA100; if this support line is broken, it would be a sign for a downtrend.

Similarly “cautiously optimistic” is the MACD: it is currently positive. Furthermore, the MACD line (blue) and signal (orange) are fighting for the upper hand in the last few days. Currently one had just a bullish crossover, which speaks for a short-term upward trend. But beware: since May 28th, i.e. since the abrupt rise, both the MACD-line and the signal are decreasing.

After the MACD (second panel from above) was strongly positive until May 20th, it has been strongly negative since then and at best weakly positive since then. Currently, the MACD is negative – suggesting a negative correction in the nearest future.

Nevertheless, the RSI is positive overall: since May 28th the RSI is above 50 and thus bullish.

Finally, the Accumulation/Distribution-Chart also speaks for a further rising price for the time being. Since May 28th, the buyers predominate – which suggests that the price continues to rise.

So you can expect a rising price even after the DAO Token Sale. But the background could still be the DAO token, after all some Exchanges have already implemented the purchase and sale of DAO tokens (About the DAO token sale and what happens next is written elsewhere).

SEC: Bitcoin and Ether ETN exposed, BTC price reacts cautiously

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is temporarily suspending trading of Bitcoin and Ether-ETN. This means that it will no longer be possible to trade the Bitcoin Tracker One (CXBTF) and Ether Tracker One (CETHF) securities until 20 September 2018.

However, the Bitcoin formula reacts unimpressed

First BTC-ETF, now also BTC-ETN and Ether-ETN: The SEC doesn’t trust the whole crypto thing yet. Sometimes it’s the high fluctuations in the Bitcoin formula, now it’s a lack of knowledge among investors. In any case, the US Securities and Exchange Commission announced the temporary suspension of Bitcoin Tracker One and Ether Tracker One trading in a public announcement:

“The Securities and Exchange Commission announces the temporary suspension of trading in the securities Bitcoin Tracker One (“CXBTF”) and Ether Tracker One (“CETHF”) pursuant to Section 12(k) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The suspension will commence on 9 September 2018 and end on 20 September 2018 at 23:59 EDT.

The Commission has temporarily suspended trading in the CXBTF and CETHF securities due to confusion among market participants […]. The Commission warns broker-dealers, shareholders and potential buyers not to carefully examine the above information together with any other information currently available and any information that the company may subsequently issue”.

Investor ambiguities

According to this, it is probably primarily conceptual ambiguity that confuses potential investors. For example, the SEC advises that any applications should be carefully examined:

“In addition, brokers and traders should ensure that, according to Rule 15c2-11 of the Stock Exchange Act, no listing may be entered upon termination of the trading block as long as they have not strictly complied with all the provisions of the Rule. If a broker or trader has questions as to whether or not he has complied with the rule, he should not make an offer but should immediately contact the Trading and Markets Department of the Office for Interpretation and Advice at (202) 551-5777.

Furthermore, if a broker or trader is uncertain of what is required by Rule 15c2-11, he should refrain from entering quotations in respect of CXBTF or CETHF Securities until he has familiarised himself with the rule and is satisfied that all provisions have been complied with. If a broker or trader makes an offer that violates this rule, the Commission will consider the need for immediate enforcement.”

It is the proximity to the Bitcoin ETF, in particular, that is currently causing confusion among investors. By definition, Exchange Traded Notes (ETN) are an exchange-traded bearer bond that reflects performance 1:1. In contrast to ETFs, however, an ETN is not a special fund, i.e. not protected against insolvency. Click here for the details of the Bitcoin ETF.

Influence on the Bitcoin price
However, the Bitcoin price reacts cautiously to the SEC decision. Bitcoin is still quoted at almost 6,300 US dollars and a 7-day minus of around 13 percent. Last week’s price slump was probably related to a false report about the crypto trading desk plans of investment giant Goldman Sachs. In addition, the liquidation of a large number of crypto currencies, the origin of which is attributed to the haze circles of the Silk Road, is suspected to have fired the negative price event. The price reacted similarly cautiously to the SEC’s last announcement that it would temporarily not approve the Bitcoin ETFs.

The Opinion Echo: “Long Bitcoin secret, Short the Banks” – Deutsche Bank in the Crossfire of the Crypto Community

Rarely has the discrepancy between hype and reality in the crypto-cosmos been higher than these days. Bullish forecasts can be found everywhere despite falling prices. Permabullen have still the interpretation sovereignty over expected course of prices in the short to middle term. This can be seen in the exalted reactions of the Bitcoin community against the bearish tones of Vinny Lingham.

But Deutsche Bank is also catapulting itself to the sidelines with renewed accusations of money laundering, thus triggering the banking-critical community. What moves the scene in KW48.

Tim Draper: You called it Bitcoin secret

Mr. “In 2022 Bitcoin secret will be worth $250,000” Draper likes to call Bitcoin secret political currencies. These are slow, inefficient and simply expensive. For this reason alone, Draper says, the money market will seek more efficient ways in the short or long term. For Draper, the winner is already certain: Bitcoin. At the World Crypto Con in Las Vegas, he reaffirmed his bullish stance and referred to the casual coercion of the laws of the market economy:

“I mean, just because they cost you less, it’ll be better for people. And so they will move on to crypto, away from the political currency they call Fiat.” Tim Draper

The Bitcoin Community Trolls Deutsche Bank

For the bank-critical part of the crypto community, reports about money laundering allegations against well-known credit institutions such as Deutsche Bank are a found food. Under a tweet of the bank, in which it commented on the accusations, a whole series of malicious comments were found. A selection:

It is true that the police is currently conducting an investigation at a number of our offices in Germany. The investigation has to do with the Panama Papers case. More details will be communicated as soon as these become known. We are cooperating fully with the authorities.

It is true that the police is currently conducting an investigation at a number of our offices in Germany. The investigation has to do with the Panama Papers case. More details will be communicated as soon as these become known. We are cooperating fully with the authorities.

All against Vinny
How sensitive the crypto community reacts to critical voices can be seen in Vinny Lingham’s example. The Civic CEO is regarded as the “Bitcoin Oracle”, a title that the community can only smile tiredly about because of Lingham’s bearish attitude. His interview with CNBC Fast Money, in which Lingham draws a very pessimistic picture, then triggered a veritable shitstorm on Twitter.

“Pack as many misconceptions into a four-minute video as you can. Go,” commented software developer and Bitcoin bull Vijay Boyapati.